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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-T.Hill to KC 11 for -1 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model