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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

DEN
35.2%
NO
64.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.292 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DEN

Aqib Talib CB Out Back
Derek Wolfe DE Out Elbow

NO

Stephone Anthony LB Out Hamstring
Michael Mauti LB Out Illness
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Daniel Lasco RB Questionable Hamstring
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 25
–
NO 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:51 TD DEN (5:51) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Taylor (31-J.Byrd). Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 87-J.Taylor for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0 DEN 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 13:48 FG DEN (13:48) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG NO (:02) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DEN 10 – NO 3
  • Q3 08:35 TD NO (8:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 DEN 10 – NO 9
  • Q3 04:05 TD NO (4:05) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – NO 16
  • Q4 09:41 TD DEN (9:41) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-P.Kruger]. Pass 2, YAC 0 DEN 16 – NO 17
  • Q4 03:27 FG DEN (3:27) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 20 – NO 17
  • Q4 02:55 FG DEN (2:55) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 23 – NO 17
  • Q4 01:30 TD NO (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-B.Cooks for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (13:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to NO 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-B.Cooks to NO 39 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (13:48) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%

    (10:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (5:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NO 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 31-J.Byrd to NO 14 for 2 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DEN 40, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 47 for 7 yards (19-J.Lampman). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Latimer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 40.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (12:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to NO 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 86%

    (14:23) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 47 for 17 yards (97-S.Barrington).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (3:27) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (2:55) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.