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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 18

Denver Broncos 20 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model