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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 47 for 17 yards (97-S.Barrington).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model