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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 32

Denver Broncos 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.75 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP