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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 51

Denver Broncos 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to NO 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP