Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- SEA offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
BUF
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:36 TD BUF (13:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – SEA 0
- Q1 12:26 TD SEA (12:26) 3-R.Wilson right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – SEA 6
- Q1 02:24 TD BUF (2:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 17-J.Hunter for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – SEA 7
- Q2 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 88-J.Graham for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-L.Alexander]. Penalty on BUF-26-R.Blanton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BUF 14 – SEA 13
- Q2 09:35 FG BUF (9:35) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 17 – SEA 14
- Q2 04:33 TD SEA (4:33) 79-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 32-C.Michael right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – SEA 20
- Q2 01:05 TD SEA (1:05) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 88-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – SEA 27
- Q4 14:28 TD BUF (14:28) 72-R.Groy reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-70-E.Wood was injured during the play. He is Out. BUF 23 – SEA 28
- Q4 09:54 FG SEA (9:54) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. BUF 25 – SEA 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(13:45) 9-J.Ryan punt is BLOCKED by 55-J.Hughes, Center-48-N.Frese, ball out of bounds at SEA 3.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(9:35) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(7:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to BUF 21, Center-48-N.Frese. 22-R.Bush to BUF 21 for no gain (27-N.Thorpe).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 50%
(6:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to SEA 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett to BUF 18 for 44 yards (26-R.Blanton; 6-C.Schmidt). Buffalo challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to SEA 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at BUF 40 for 22 yards (35-M.Gillislee).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 56%
(2:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to SEA 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 42 for -2 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on SEA-97-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%
(9:54) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 89 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 62 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-N.Frese. 22-R.Bush to BUF 40 for 13 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis; 27-N.Thorpe).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 15 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%
(:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 10-R.Woods [55-F.Clark].