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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 17 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to SEA 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett to BUF 18 for 44 yards (26-R.Blanton; 6-C.Schmidt). Buffalo challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to SEA 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at BUF 40 for 22 yards (35-M.Gillislee).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.18 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP