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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 17 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to SEA 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 42 for -2 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on SEA-97-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.68 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 37, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP