Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Buffalo Bills 25

(2:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 62 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-N.Frese. 22-R.Bush to BUF 40 for 13 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis; 27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.30 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model