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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 25 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 10-R.Woods [55-F.Clark].

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP