4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Thursday 2016-11-03 · 20:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

ATL
66.7%
TB
33.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.274 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 27
–
TB 22
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Tevin Coleman RB Out Hamstring
Dwight Freeney DE Out Quadricep
Jacob Tamme TE Out Shoulder

TB

Doug Martin RB Out Hamstring
Jacquizz Rodgers RB Out Foot
Clinton McDonald DT Out Hamstring
Russell Shepard WR Doubtful Hip
William Gholston DE Questionable Biceps

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 43
–
TB 28

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:37 TD TB (9:37) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 07:47 TD ATL (7:47) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 80-L.Toilolo for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 7
  • Q1 06:12 FG ATL (6:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – TB 7
  • Q2 13:42 FG ATL (13:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – TB 7
  • Q2 08:43 TD TB (8:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – TB 13
  • Q2 04:01 TD ATL (4:01) 18-T.Gabriel right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – TB 14
  • Q3 08:59 TD ATL (8:59) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 42-P.DiMarco for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – TB 14
  • Q3 03:07 TD ATL (3:07) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 32 – TB 14
  • Q4 10:00 TD ATL (10:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 39 – TB 14
  • Q4 06:53 TD TB (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 11-A.Humphries for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 40 – TB 20
  • Q4 03:47 FG ATL (3:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 43 – TB 20
  • Q4 01:01 TD TB (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 43 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (6:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (13:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:41) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 18 for 10 yards (95-H.Jones, 84-C.Brate). Penalty on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Therezie, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to ATL 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 18 for 1 yard (29-R.Smith).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (14:45) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Humphries [97-G.Jarrett].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (7:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-C.Shorts to ATL 7 for 20 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

    (3:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.