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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 40

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-C.Shorts to ATL 7 for 20 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP