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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(8:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 18 for 1 yard (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP