Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 18 for 10 yards (95-H.Jones, 84-C.Brate). Penalty on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Therezie, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.87 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model