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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP