Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.238 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.018 EPA/dropback
- GB offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- GB on 3 more days rest than ATL
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
GB
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:46 FG ATL (9:46) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. GB 0 – ATL 3
- Q1 06:14 TD GB (6:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – ATL 3
- Q1 04:36 TD ATL (4:36) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – ATL 9
- Q2 11:58 TD GB (11:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-G.Allison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – ATL 10
- Q2 08:55 FG ATL (8:55) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. GB 14 – ATL 13
- Q2 04:31 TD GB (4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-T.Davis for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – ATL 13
- Q2 00:32 TD ATL (:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – ATL 19
- Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 24 – ATL 19
- Q3 03:35 TD ATL (3:35) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – ATL 25
- Q4 04:04 TD GB (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-J.Janis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Holding, declined. GB 30 – ATL 26
- Q4 00:36 TD ATL (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 32 – ATL 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 50%
(11:47) 24-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at GB 25 for 17 yards (50-B.Martinez).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%
(9:46) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%
(8:55) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:25) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to ATL 22, Center-61-B.Goode. 14-E.Weems to ATL 33 for 11 yards (33-M.Hyde). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on ATL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:02) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to GB 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Davis to ATL 15 for 55 yards (36-K.Ishmael).
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Q3 GB 4th & 14 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:11) 10-J.Schum punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(12:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to GB 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 28 for 5 yards (36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on GB-29-K.Brice, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at GB 28.
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 68 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 56%
(:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.