Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to GB 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 28 for 5 yards (36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on GB-29-K.Brice, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at GB 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model