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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 24-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at GB 25 for 17 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model