4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model