Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to ATL 22, Center-61-B.Goode. 14-E.Weems to ATL 33 for 11 yards (33-M.Hyde). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32. Penalty on ATL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model