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Cleveland Browns

0-7 HC Hue Jackson
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

3-4 HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 ET Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE
32.7%
CIN
67.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.168 vs Cody Kessler (CLE) +0.126 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21 14–28
–
CIN 26 19–33
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

Marcus Burley CB Out Hamstring
Corey Coleman WR Out Hand
Seth DeValve TE Out Knee
Josh McCown QB Out left Shoulder
Joe Haden CB Doubtful Groin
Xavier Cooper DE Questionable Shoulder
Terrelle Pryor WR Questionable Hamstring
Randall Telfer TE Questionable Ankle

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
CIN 31

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:19 TD CIN (12:19) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 13:30 FG CLE (13:30) 3-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 06:23 TD CLE (6:23) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – CIN 7
  • Q2 04:17 TD CIN (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 11-B.LaFell for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-J.Taylor, Illegal Contact, declined. CLE 10 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:07 TD CIN (:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – CIN 20
  • Q3 10:54 TD CLE (10:54) 8-K.Hogan scrambles left tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – CIN 21
  • Q3 09:59 TD CIN (9:59) 32-J.Hill right tackle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – CIN 27
  • Q3 04:24 FG CIN (4:24) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 17 – CIN 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:43) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (3:48) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (13:30) 3-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:11) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 30 for 3 yards (86-J.Wright; 33-R.Burkhead).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (1:10) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 13. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 3 yards (54-D.Alexander; 58-C.Kirksey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (4:24) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 9 for no gain (53-J.Schobert). PENALTY on CIN-86-J.Wright, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 9.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (7:17) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (4:04) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →