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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model