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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model