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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model