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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 13. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 3 yards (54-D.Alexander; 58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model