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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN
35.3%
MIA
64.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than TEN
  • QB edge to MIA: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) +0.000 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.032 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Cody Riggs CB Out Hamstring
Da'Norris Searcy S Out Ankle
Al Woods DT Out Calf
Jace Amaro TE Questionable Shoulder

MIA

Jordan Cameron TE Out Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Koa Misi LB Out Neck
Arian Foster RB Doubtful Hamstring
Branden Albert T Questionable Ankle
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Groin
Mike Pouncey C Questionable Hip
Anthony Steen G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 30
–
MIA 17

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:30 TD TEN (:30) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 12:44 TD MIA (12:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to MIA 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 05:34 TD TEN (5:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-A.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – MIA 7
  • Q2 02:01 TD MIA (2:01) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 14 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:52 TD TEN (:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – MIA 14
  • Q3 10:37 FG TEN (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 24 – MIA 14
  • Q3 05:13 FG MIA (5:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. TEN 24 – MIA 17
  • Q4 08:30 TD TEN (8:30) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 18-R.Matthews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – MIA 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 19 for 2 yards (28-B.McCain).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (4:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 28 yards to MIA 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-52-A.Wallace.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to TEN 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 39 for 9 yards (35-W.Aikens; 31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 18 for 9 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to MIA 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to TEN 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on MIA-35-W.Aikens, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 23%

    (:02) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Sharpe.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (5:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to MIA 48 for 18 yards (4-M.Darr). Penalty on TEN-47-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at TEN 34. Penalty on MIA-4-M.Darr, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to MIA 46, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 51%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 26 yards to MIA 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 23 for 12 yards (55-S.Spence).