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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to TEN 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 39 for 9 yards (35-W.Aikens; 31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model