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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to TEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 18 for 9 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP