Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(12:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to MIA 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.90 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model