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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 30 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 26 yards to MIA 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 23 for 12 yards (55-S.Spence).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP