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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NYG
36.6%
GB
63.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB on 8 more days rest than NYG
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.050 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Larry Donnell TE Out Concussion
Marshall Newhouse T Out Calf
Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Eli Apple CB Questionable Hamstring
Rashad Jennings RB Questionable Thumb
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Questionable Groin

GB

Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
Sam Shields CB Out Concussion
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 16
–
GB 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:23 TD GB (6:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 08:26 FG NYG (8:26) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – GB 7
  • Q2 06:07 TD GB (6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 01:55 FG NYG (1:55) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 6 – GB 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. NYG 6 – GB 17
  • Q3 05:31 FG NYG (5:31) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 9 – GB 17
  • Q4 13:50 FG GB (13:50) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. NYG 9 – GB 20
  • Q4 06:42 FG GB (6:42) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. NYG 9 – GB 23
  • Q4 03:03 TD NYG (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-N.Perry]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 15 – GB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 23%

    (4:31) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to GB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. PENALTY on GB-88-T.Montgomery, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:58) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to GB 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. PENALTY on NYG-82-R.Lewis, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at GB 17.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 20 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:52) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to NYG 45, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%

    (8:26) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 19%

    (5:09) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to GB 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (1:55) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:38) 10-J.Schum punts 42 yards to NYG 33, Center-61-B.Goode. 17-D.Harris to NYG 39 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 81%

    (:03) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:48) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to GB 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:17) 10-J.Schum punts 32 yards to NYG 47, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (5:31) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:32) 10-J.Schum punts 39 yards to NYG 34, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:45) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to GB 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Davis to GB 20 for 3 yards (59-D.Kennard).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (13:50) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:09) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to GB 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (6:42) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.