Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 58

New York Giants 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to GB 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.76 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model