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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model