Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 10-J.Schum punts 39 yards to NYG 34, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model