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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 57

New York Giants 9 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to GB 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Davis to GB 20 for 3 yards (59-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model