Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Jimmy Garoppolo (NE): +0.380 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- MIA offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (NE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
MIA
NE
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:02 TD NE (11:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Jones]. MIA 0 – NE 6
- Q1 06:27 TD NE (6:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 88-M.Bennett for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 13
- Q2 13:14 TD NE (13:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 80-Amendola 1st multiple TD game of his career. MIA 0 – NE 20
- Q2 02:52 FG NE (2:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. MIA 0 – NE 24
- Q2 00:05 FG MIA (:05) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – NE 24
- Q3 08:46 TD NE (8:46) (Shotgun) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – NE 30
- Q3 05:52 TD MIA (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-E.Roberts]. MIA 9 – NE 31
- Q4 14:55 TD MIA (14:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 84-J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-91-J.Collins was injured during the play. MIA 16 – NE 31
- Q4 06:10 TD MIA (6:10) 32-K.Drake right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – NE 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:42) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to NE 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 7 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 68%
(4:38) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(11:44) 4-M.Darr punts 52 yards to NE 33, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 48 for 19 yards (42-S.Paysinger; 48-M.Gray).
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Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%
(10:13) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden.
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%
(2:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%
(1:05) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.
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Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:18) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. PENALTY on MIA-28-B.McCain, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.
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Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 21 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%
(1:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%
(:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon [95-C.Long] at NE -9. Touchback.