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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 44

New England Patriots 24 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.27 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP