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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 16

New England Patriots 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model