Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

(9:42) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to NE 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 7 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model