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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP