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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SEA
47.8%
ARI
52.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.272 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.295 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
ARI 27
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SEA

J.R. Sweezy G Out Concussion
Luke Willson TE Out Concussion
Marshawn Lynch RB Out Abdomen
Russell Okung T Doubtful Calf
Kam Chancellor S Questionable Pelvis
Jordan Hill DT Questionable Toe
Cliff Avril DE Probable Back
Michael Bennett DE Probable Toe

ARI

Markus Golden LB Out Knee
Josh Mauro DT Out Calf
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Knee
Dwight Freeney LB Questionable Knee
Rashad Johnson S Questionable Ankle
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Ankle
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Mike Leach LS Probable Back
Jerraud Powers CB Probable Hamstring
Cory Redding DT Probable Ankle
Ed Stinson DT Probable Ribs
Stepfan Taylor RB Probable Shoulder
Andre Ellington RB Probable Toe
Alani Fua LB Probable Groin
Carson Palmer QB Probable right Finger
Patrick Peterson CB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 36
–
ARI 6

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:26 TD SEA (5:26) 36-B.Brown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 03:14 FG SEA (3:14) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – ARI 0
  • Q2 12:05 TD ARI (12:05) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – ARI 6
  • Q2 06:07 TD SEA (6:07) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 46-W.Tukuafu for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ARI 6
  • Q2 03:58 TD SEA (3:58) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 86-C.Coffman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ARI 6
  • Q2 02:15 TD SEA (2:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Kearse for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – ARI 6
  • Q3 09:44 FG SEA (9:44) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 33 – ARI 6
  • Q3 04:55 FG SEA (4:55) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 36 – ARI 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:54) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SEA 22, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 44 for 22 yards (2-D.Butler). PENALTY on SEA-25-R.Sherman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 68%

    (3:14) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:15) 2-D.Butler punts 56 yards to SEA 18, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 16 for 66 yards (22-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Face Mask (15 Yards), 8 yards, enforced at ARI 16.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:15) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to SEA 31, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett to ARI 27 for 42 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:54) 2-D.Butler punts 53 yards to SEA 18, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 31 yards (30-S.Taylor).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (:32) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (9:44) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:27) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SEA 33, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:20) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to ARI 10, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 14-J.Nelson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ARI 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 14-J.Nelson to ARI 10 for -2 yards (91-C.Marsh).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short left intended for 12-Jo.Brown INTERCEPTED by 35-D.Shead at SEA 0. 35-D.Shead pushed ob at SEA 40 for 40 yards (70-B.Massie).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 17-K.Smith to ARI 17 for 17 yards (28-J.Bethel).