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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-D.Butler punts 53 yards to SEA 18, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 31 yards (30-S.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP