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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Seattle Seahawks 36

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SEA 33, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP