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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP