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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to SEA 31, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett to ARI 27 for 42 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP