Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- ATL offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Cam Newton (CAR): +0.233 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CAR defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL defense: +0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
CAR
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:23 TD CAR (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 0
- Q2 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) 24-D.Freeman left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – ATL 6
- Q3 05:29 FG CAR (5:29) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 10 – ATL 7
- Q3 02:25 TD ATL (2:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [31-C.Tillman]. CAR 10 – ATL 13
- Q4 08:04 FG CAR (8:04) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 13 – ATL 14
- Q4 02:28 FG ATL (2:28) 6-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 13 – ATL 17
- Q4 01:35 FG ATL (1:35) 6-S.Graham 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 13 – ATL 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%
(11:17) 8-B.Nortman punts 31 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 54%
(8:05) 5-M.Bosher punts 25 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 62%
(1:52) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-T.Williams.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%
(8:27) 6-S.Graham 43 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(5:29) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(14:12) 8-B.Nortman punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-81-T.Moeaki, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 78%
(8:04) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%
(2:28) 6-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 63 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 88-G.Olsen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%
(1:35) 6-S.Graham 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
See the full breakdown →
