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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model