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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 5-M.Bosher punts 25 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model