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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 8-B.Nortman punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-81-T.Moeaki, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model